Will Thai Elections Result in the Return of Thaksin?

The pure majority win by the politically inexperienced sister of the former PM now turned fugitive gives the Reds an opportunity to negotiate a much desired pardon for her brother. The question still remains, will he actually return to Thailand once the pardon or amnesty is granted. The answer is most likely, a huge 'Yes'!

Yet, the larger question remains, "will the Thai public see his return as a unifying factor or will they see it as a provocation and incitement to more protests and clashes in the streets, airports, and commercial centers of the much beleaguered country". Here the views appear to be quite mixed.

The general mood here seems to be a feeling of even greater uncertainty in the short run. While many people are happy to see Abhisit gone because of his connection will the repression of street protests in April of last year, still others are very concerned that the return of Thaksin would only serve to deepen the rift in the county's already fractured society.

The recent news of his potential appointment as "Trade Envoy" a mere two days after that election and prior to his sister actually being confirmed as the nation's first female PM was met with skepticism and a sense that the Reds are not even letting the change settle in before starting to stoke the flames of hostility and trouble.

Many Thais I speak to liked Thaksin but agree that he is a divisive figure in Thai politics, not to mention a convicted fugitive running from justice, and that rewarding such behavior with a cabinet post given the current unstable atmospherics would serve as a poor example of reunification and appreciation for the rule of law. Instead, it would only serve to enflame passions on both sides and further exacerbate the much held belief that the Thai people do not believe in the rule of law but instead are a country of corrupt, money grubbing, crooks, which is very far from the truth.

Quite to the contrary most Thais have strongly held ethical beliefs which are far more closely aligned with those of Americans and the French then with other more corrupt countries.

Yinluck needs to tread lightly with her new found fame and not over-read the elections results. She may find that the Reds merely won a protest vote against Abhisit and that the election does not actually provide her with a mandate broad enough for her fugitive brother to sneak into the country under.

Things are getting very interesting, indeed!